How bond Yield Effect The Market-

 How bonds affect stock markets?

When valuing equities, investors add the equity risk premium they seek to a risk-free rate to compute the expected rate of return. Usually the easiest way to estimate the risk-free rate is to default it to the long government bond yield. This is why long bond yields matter to equities.

Now, theoretically, given that the long bond yield is the risk-free rate, a higher bond yield is bad for equities and vice versa. But one must also remember why bond yields are changing and not just the direction of change.

“Long bond yields reflect the growth and inflation mix in the economy. If growth is strong, bond yields are usually rising. They also rise when inflation is going higher. The impact of these two situations is different for equities,” explains Ridham Desai, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a co-authored note with Sheela Rathi and Nayant Parekh.

When growth is strong, the impact of higher growth in terms of cash flows or, more precisely, dividends more than offsets the negative impact of the rise in yields, causing equity share prices to trade higher.

“The gap between real GDP growth and the 10-year bond yield correlates well with share prices, underpinning the point made above. Indeed, to the extent that growth accelerates in the coming months faster than the rise in bond yields, share prices should be fine,” says Desai, adding that Indian equities/bond valuations are at the top end of their 2010-21 ranges.

“If growth accelerates from here, as we expect, it is likely that equities break this range on the upside, consistent with the fundamental relationship,” he believes.

How should investors trade?

Morgan Stanley suggests two scenarios for investors. Under the first scenario, where growth accelerates, portfolios should be positioned in domestic cyclicals, rate-sensitives, and mid- and smallcaps.

Under the second scenario, where inflation makes a rapid return, the brokerage advises investors to bet on technology, healthcare, and consumer staples.

(From Business Standard)